ūüö® BITCOIN $50,000 Analysis and macroeconomic disaster | #16 Madelon Talks | The Future Standard

ūüö® BITCOIN $50,000 Analysis and macroeconomic disaster | #16 Madelon Talks | The Future Standard

welcome to today's video my name is martin 
luther and this is madeleine talks today we'll   discuss the most important macroeconomic 
and curtail-related news of the week   and in this week's video we're gonna take 
a look in the near future because there is   so much more to come we're just at the 
beginning and this not only in terms of   price but also in terms of innovation and today 
we're going to take a look at what the innovation   might be and what the future might look like 
also in macroeconomic terms so not only when   it comes to crypto but also when it comes to our 
economy because there are some new things evolving   and there are some things that we need 
to discuss when it comes to the future of   commodities and the s p 500 because we see some 
strange comparisons so we will discuss that but   first i'm going to put myself in the right corner 
of this video and i want to make sure that you are   subscribed to this channel and also make sure that 
you press the thumb in order to rank these videos   more or higher in youtube to make sure that 
everyone who is interested in macroeconomics and   in cryptocurrencies find these videos because they 
are really important when it comes to getting more   knowledge around these subjects so we're going to 
start with our good friend hogar from germany and   he tweeted as long as the music is playing you've 
got to get out and dance and this is a great quote   and it was quoted as well in the movie the big 
show but actually it's from someone who worked   at citibank at the time the great financial crisis 
started the gfc and this was a time in which   or at least right before this time started in 
2007 this was the time that everyone knew that   something wasn't going great and it had to do 
with the subprime mortgages and the collapse of   the whole credit system in 2008 but they felt that 
there was something going on already but he said   as long as the music is playing you get to get up 
and dance so make sure that you follow this trend   in order to be at this party so that's what 
he said and um it's a very important one and   plan b retweeted this one as well and hogar is 
actually mentioning the balance sheet right now   of the g3 and these are the central banks the 
biggest central banks this is the bank of japan   the bank of europe and the federal reserve 
so the central banks and um as you can see   here we have the phase in 2007 and 2008 and 
you can see how the expansion of the balance   sheet was at that time and after the the great 
financial crisis happened this kept rising and   rising and rising and here we are at the new 
crisis which evolved in 2020 of course in march   2020 and then the balance sheet expanded even more 
and we're now sitting at 24.3 trillion which is a   lot and hogar is actually saying we know that 
something is not going well but we have to get   up and continue what we are doing right now but 
we of course know that something is going on and   not only we know that something 
is going on but also the chairman   of the federal reserve jerome powell knows 
that something is going on and take a look   at what he's know what he's saying what he's 
doing take a look at his eyes for example how much he is blinking during his speech and 
usually when someone is blinking during um   during their talk this means that they're 
actually hiding something or maybe even lying   so his body language isn't suggesting that he 
really thinks that inflation is transitory or that   he really thinks that we're actually moving the 
right way so we know that he has to choose between   two options and on the other hand on the one hand 
we have this the expansion of the balance sheet of   the federal reserve and together with low interest 
rates which is actually a strategy you would use   when you have a deep deep deep crisis and right 
now we can't do anything if a crisis evolves and   on the other hand he has to choose between raising 
the interest rates and tightening policy but   with the side notes that this whole system as 
hogar spoke about the dancing the whole dance is   gonna stop the music is gonna stop playing and if 
he chooses for expanding the balance sheet and for   continuing what he's doing right now what they're 
doing right now then we're going to see higher and   higher inflation and this is actually not what we 
want to say but we saw lynn alden tweeted tweeting   about the dollar system and this is actually the 
system what it's all about and um i just want you   to take a good look at what's actually happening 
right here with the federal reserve the balance   sheet then we have the onshore entities for 
example the banks we have the offshore entities   for example the money markets and if you take 
a look at this if you get what what what is   actually happening right here then you probably 
know that this is not the way it should go and   you probably know the quote from henry ford if the 
world would now know how money works then we would   probably get a revolution and this is actually 
what is happening right now a lot of people are   kind of feeling that this system is coming to 
an end and not only we as crypto twitter but   also the regular guy in the street is seeing that 
his purchasing power is decreasing and seeing that   someone sitting at a central bank doesn't really 
know what to do and this is where everything comes   together and i think that economists are 
arguing too much about what should happen   over the last couple of 10 20 30 years we have 
economists reading books about the keynesian   school of economics the cancer school of economics 
is all about inflation is good deflation is bad   and the fact that a central bank needs to step in 
and that's what central banks did and a lot of or   at least not a lot of economic economists but some 
economics there was a small group of economics   for example to the maester and they were a fan 
of the austrian school of economics in which you   have a more libertarian vision on um money and 
money in the state should be separated and the   central bank should not step in um the market has 
to decide on its own and right now we see that   from 1971 in which the decision was made to 
separate the dollar from the packing of gold   this whole bubble started and at that time 
it was the only option to do but right now   when looking back it wasn't a good decision 
so we were actually struggling right now   and um this is a lecture jury the maester tweeted 
about and um this is the name i will put it down   in the link below as well and um it's about the 
austrian method that's used in austrian economics   and to actually watch this multiple 
times or listen to this it's   you can only listen to it there's nothing to 
see but it's really important to understand how   economists think when it comes to the austrian 
school of economics and this is where my whole   story started i started with reading about 
bitcoin and um then i found out that our money   is broken that a complete system is broken 
and that the austrian school of economics is   a way in which i would um i think 
that money is way better when it's   not in the hands of governments or central banks 
or whatever and that's what i like about bitcoin   and you should definitely listen to this 
one if you're interested in macroeconomics   i will put a link down below and what i wanted to 
discuss is a new tweet or i think it's actually an   old tweet but it's a really important one because 
i'm going to connect you with a new tweet from   kevin but this is taffy costa and javi costa is 
showing us the bloomberg precious metal sub index   divided by the smp equal weighted commodity sector 
so here is the index figure that we are seeing on   this chart from the precious metal divided 
by the s p 500 let's let's name it like this   and um as you can see we are at a low the third is 
lowest level since um let's say the 2000 or so um   we're actually hitting 1.34 right now and this is   a really important one because precious 
metals are now at their cheapest levels relative to a commodity since 2009 so as you can 
see what happened after this indicator gave a sign   in 2008 the price of gold went upward you can see 
in 2018 we found out that this was at the new low   and then the price of gold went upward right 
now we're seeing is low again so this might be   a signal that the price will go upward again so 
it's an important one the other two times the   ratio reached such a depressed level also marked 
incredible buying opportunities so this might be a   buying opportunity for gold and this is actually a 
tweet from i think it was the beginning of august   and i want to show you this as well from kevin c 
smith and kevin is speaking about the cpi with cpi   um understated and rising inflation unlikely to 
be transitory what we've discussed over the last   couple of months i think it is six months or so 
the timing to buy undervalued small cap precious   metals miners and sell large cap growth stocks is 
probably as good as it gets so as you can see in   this chart we are having the gold to s p ratio on 
the left side of this chart and this is the ratio   of gold to the s p 500 so it's a bit different 
from the precious metal sub index to the s p   equal weighted commodity sector but right now here 
we have the s p uh against gold gold to s p ratio   and what we're actually seeing right now is 
that this is at a low of around let's say 0.8 i think it's zero point no 0.5 let's say it's 
0.5 and this follows the trend of inflation really   well the vertical rise of cpi looks like 
1973 and this is what we've discussed in   1973 we had a period of stagflation in which the 
economic growth slowed down the unemployment was   quite high and the interest rates were quite low 
as well but we had high inflation and there was   nothing that they could do besides the fact 
that they could raise interest rates until highs   around 15 you're hearing this good 15 and the 
question right now is what is the central bank   going to do when inflation is rising but also what 
are we going to do with our money how are we going   to protect it against losing our purchasing 
power when we put money in a bank when we are   giving a loan to the bank and getting negative 
interest rates so taking a look at this consumer   price index year on year on the end of july hit 
5.4 percent and now the big question is what's   going to happen with the gold to the s p 500 ratio 
so the real question is what's going to happen is   the price of gold going to rise or is the s p 500 
going to decrease or maybe even going to collapse   or are we going to see both at the same time are 
we going to see that the price of gold is rising   and at the same time the s p 500 is decreasing 
in value he is actually saying the timing to buy   undervalued small cap precious metal miners and 
sell over overvalued large cap growth stocks is   probably as good as it gets so he's actually 
saying you have to do both you have to sell   the large cap growth stocks and have to buy and 
this this is quite heavy have to buy small cap   precious metal miners because when the price of 
gold and silver as well are rising when these   prices are rising the companies who mine the gold 
and the silver are doing way better than the price   of gold and silver is actually doing but if you 
want to remain your purchasing power then i would   suggest to or at least in my own portfolio 
i would suggest from for my own sake to just   put my money from the bank to gold instead of 
making this switch because this is a heavy one   but you can always or at least i can always down 
leverage uh on the fact that i have some let's   say i have some overvalued large cap pro stocks i 
can switch them to precious metal miners but you   have to make sure that these are very carefully 
selected and that you select the the good ones   um but this is a buying opportunity again for 
gold same as tavia octa saw three weeks ago   and then we have volga again we started 
with a tweet from hogar and now he's back   deloitte with the deloitte blockchain survey 
and this survey highlights that crypto and   other assets will replace via within 10 years and 
81 of the respondents agreed that technology is   broadly scalable and as high achieved mainstream 
adoption so we are actually at the beginning of   something that's so big we can't even imagine this 
is gonna be way better and way more and way faster   than we've actually seen right now and there has 
been so much going on over the last couple of   months over the last couple of years and 
this is something that we could never expect   happening governments making their own digital 
assets facebook creating an own cryptocurrency   um bitcoin doing this great in terms of market 
cap all the other defy um concepts that are   actually uh evolving right now peer-to-peer 
lending there's so much going on in the world   it's like the internet just started it's just the 
beginning and there's so much great that's coming   and i'm super excited about this because we can 
um we're at the first row watching what's going   to happen and this might change the world and it's 
it's just so cool um there's something else that's   so cool but not so cool at the same time and when 
we're talking about all of these innovations over   the last couple of years and in the future of 
course we have to take a look at what happened   in el salvador in june they declared bitcoin as a 
legal tender and this law comes into effect at the   i think it was the first week of september so the 
seventh or the sixth or so and this is where it   becomes really interesting um when looking at 
the united states they are really nervous about   what's going on and the state of america even 
sanctioned 14 el salvadorian government officials   the world bank and the imf issued warnings and 
the e-l-s-l bonds tanked but president nachi   bukela ignored all of these red flags and 
he just dived in he wants to make bitcoin a   legal tender in the first week of september in 
his country the first country in the world but   there is something underneath this and that's what 
needs to be discussed and i think this is where it   becomes really interesting and really exciting 
as well so the imf gave a loan to el salvador   and i think it was around 1 billion and when it 
comes to the risks that el salvador is taking   in terms of making bitcoin a legal tender there 
are some people that are actually saying that the   imf might want to have their money back because 
they're now at a higher risk than they were before   in terms of paying the debts off paying 
the money back to the imf where the loan   came from so there might be a situation in 
which el salvador needs to have 1 billion   usd in order to pay back the imf and i think 
that there is a good chance that the bitcoin   community will manage this and this is where 
it becomes really really interesting because   that's where we as a community are stronger than 
the government so actually i would love to see   that america says we want to have or that the 
central bank says we want to have our money back   because then the community needs to step in 
and we've heard bucheller talking about the   fact that they have a volcano and that they're 
going to do some mining so what they're going to   what they can do in order to get one billion 
they can create for example a bond a bond debts   um has an interest rate of let's say three 
percent four percent of five years or so   and this bond comes together with the crypto 
mine or is issued on top of the crypto mine and   the community the bitcoin community can buy these 
bonds then they can figure out how they can find   the 1 billion and pay back the imf and the bitcoin 
community can manage this completely so the next   two weeks are very important in order to see if 
they're going to step in so this is not the end of   a bitcoin for el salvador of course it's not but 
this is just going to be really interesting and we   gonna gonna follow what's going to happen next um 
i found this tweet from pomp as well pseudonymity   is going to be so valuable in the future and 
this isn't um that's what he usually tweets   these nice quotes and uh i love these nice quotes 
but sodomity is really important because i was in   belgium last weekend and we discussed the fact 
that kyc um heidi uh the blockchain check tweeted   that kyc is a scam and we just discussed the 
fact if kyc really is scam because the um thing   is that the financial regulators are trying to fit 
crypto in the design boxes that are already there   so we need to do kyc because that's how we always 
did it we want to know our customer but that's not   what crypto is all about crypto is about sodomity 
and not about anonymity but also not about giving   your complete identity away to a third party 
um so what you actually wanted to have is   your own wallet your own identity and you 
can just give a sign um yes i'm 18 or yes i'm   um wealthy enough to get a loan or something like 
that and you don't need to declare everything   to a third party so certainly is going to be so 
valuable in the future and also when it comes to   regulating these kinds of things and when they are 
trying to get terrorists away when they're trying   to get money launderers away and this is where 
sodomity can do lots of things when you can still   own your own your own identity and that's the only 
thing that we have online that we need to protect   really well so this is actually going to be really 
valuable in the future and then we have this this   is the 87th ether rock that has been purchased 
for 187 eat and that's now a price of 611 000   us dollars and this is actually insane there are 
three groups of people that are now watching this   uh price movement of these ether rocks and the 
first group of people is actually saying there   are only 100 rocks available and there are only 
1 000 guys with a cap available and only 10 000   giraffes available and this is what scarcity is 
about this is what art is about and when it comes   to art versus digital arts it's actually 
um the bigger fool that's buying this so   it's the value that you are giving to 
something that is a piece of art and they're   like this is vintage when it comes to the nfts 
and i actually completely agree with the fact that   nfts is a completely new world and that are 
that there are some things that might be   interesting in the future but this to me this 
is just insane there there's another group   of people that is saying this is more for 
criminals using this to get money around um   other people are saying this is actually not 
i don't know what this is all about but in   my honest opinion i feel that nfts is such a big 
world and it's gonna be or might be so important   in the future uh we can't think about what's 
going to happen in a digital world and this   is just the beginning of the internet what we've 
just just discussed there's so much going around   around in the crypto world in the d5 space in 
the nft world but we've also seen that there are   uh things that are not making it for example 
the icos or the ieos or um there are so many   things in this world that come and go but when 
it comes to these nfts it's going to be really   interesting but this i would never buy it rock 
for 611 000 usd um so just to let you know   that this is going on as well and if you're 
interested in nfts just take a look at it because   it's mind-blowing then we have paypal bringing 
cryptocurrency services to the uk customers   you might know that paypal already is offering 
crypto services to the uh us um customers   so in the us you can transact bitcoin ether 
litecoin and bitcoin cash and right now they're   also going to offer it to uk customers starting 
at the beginning of this week and we're going to   see what this is going to do with the price of 
bitcoin for uk citizens is harder to use crypto   exchanges because of their laws and regulations um 
and yeah we might see if they want to use paypal   in order to have or own bitcoin or other 
cryptocurrencies the only thing is that customers   must have a verified identity in order to buy 
cryptos and it's not supported for businesses so   that's important to know but uh here we have the 
identity expect again uh we probably have the kyc   rules and um yeah this is where digital identity 
becomes really interesting again but we're just in   this um framework of regulations and different 
boxes that these products need to fit in so   these rules and regulations will be different in 
the next couple of five or maybe even 10 years   for example when the car was released for the 
first time there was no infrastructure at all   so people had a car but they couldn't drive 
and it was all road um like crab4 or stones and   they just needed to design the frame the framework 
and they needed to design the infrastructure   and that's what we're needing to design again 
with this when it comes to this technology um   so this is really important and we're going 
to take a look at what's going to happen next   as you can see the bitcoin stock to flow model 
life chart is now actually looking good again um   this is the talk to flow here we have the price 
bitcoin this is uh the the years that uh bitcoin   exists and this is the stock to flow 360 463 days 
um and we're actually doing the same thing as we   did in 2013 and uh in my honest opinion this is 
looking good there are a lot of people that are   saying no we're gonna just double top or we're 
going down from this point again but i don't see   it going down and when looking at this chart here 
you can see the cycle low multiple and this is the   multiple current price uh divided by the cycle low 
price and here we're actually seeing that this is   from the halving it's almost looking like the same 
thing as we saw in 2013 but then we are going a   bit lower in terms of current price versus cycle 
low price so we might go a bit lower than we've   seen in um 2013 so maybe we're going to go as 
low as let's say this point and we're going to   hit the ultimate high around this point then 
we are like um we're now 300 400 500 days away   then we're probably around 600 so we're 120 days 
so this might be the end of this year that we're   going to see a high which could be as high as 
this and then we're gonna sit around 50 times   multiple of 50 and so we can actually calculate 
what the price around that time will be   um 50 times the low i'm not sure what the low was 
around the halving but let's say that we're going   to be around 100 000 that will be great actually 
also in terms of the stock to flow model and um   we're actually sitting right here right now so 
this is this is still looking good also when   looking at the tweets from plan b he's still very 
um entertained about the fact that we're doing   like clockwork as he says but there's one thing 
and that's about the month august he said that   we might seem a lower low than we've had in july 
so keep that in mind we might see retrace again   but for now it's actually doing great and then 
i want to show you this one nobody is more fun   on the internet than the bitcoiners of course the 
price of bitcoin hit 50k this week again for the   first time in three months and we're going to take 
a look at the price of bitcoin but of course we as   bitcoiners like to um celebrate everything that's 
happening in this market and we are just really   enthusiastic about the fact that this is actually 
happening and that we're front row seated um   in this uh big movement i just wanted to tell you 
by the way that i'm on twitter as well um with   the handle modlumbus mdl and vos and two double 
low dashes and um just make sure to follow me   on twitter as well so you will get notified when 
there's news online also make sure to like these   videos press on the blue button if you like this 
video so it will be recommended for more people   to watch i think it's really important for them 
to understand what's actually going on right now   um we're going to take a look at the chart and 
this is one of my favorite things from doing this   video i love technical analysis and as you can see 
we're now in this head and shoulders pattern and   this is actually now evolving and we had a tire 
point of around 52 k and we've discussed this um   when we're still sitting around this area i 
think and we can calculate the target price we   did calculate the target price from this point 
to the head i think we should do that again so and then we can just calculate what the target 
price would be the target price would sit around   52 between 52 and 53 k so we're still following 
this trend we're actually almost there and we're   now in this uptrend and we just hit the uptrend 
several times then we fell back into this uptrend   now we're again going towards this this point um 
we could hit this upward uh trend again but then   we probably fall back for now we have resistance 
around this area this is 48.9 let's say it's 49   and of course 50 is a really important um level 
when it comes to it's 50k same as 30 f40 is 20 and   um this is more like a psychological level from 
technical perspective it's not really an important   we have you can say it's an important one but um 
we just want to hold 50k but if we go down this   is the strongest support at 49 84.9 and um right 
now it's actually looking good we have had some   bearish divergence but still meh nothing to worry 
about and when taking a look at this we kind of   see that we're high on our side so we could 
see a move back and it can be not a tough one   it can be super slowly one as you can see in this 
let's take a look at what we can draw over here so we might see a move downward again but it's not 
going to be a big one i don't expect the market to   go down again no this is a really important 
support level if we go down then then this   will be the strongest support line on like 44 so 
so nothing to worry about right now we're just   hitting uh this area and this is an important area 
because we've had this isn't as a support line   where this level then we have this level again 
uh it's at the same at the same i think yeah   it's around 50 or so and if we go 
higher than this area then we the only   resistance that we have is around 60k um so 
for now it's actually looking good it will be   healthy if the market goes down quite a bit this 
is a support line over here but if we go down to   43 or so as can be predicted for august it's also 
completely fine but first i'm going to expect that   we're going to hit the target point of 51.52 or 
so or near the target point with the wig of the   candle at least so actually we're quite good 
right now i'm still very bullish even though   for the medium short term we're going to see a 
low a lower close than we've had over the last   month uh in july but we're still really bullish 
and it doesn't look like a bear market or   anything soon or fast or whatever the outs are 
also going uh doing great so for now i would like   to thank you for watching this video i hope you've 
enjoyed this video i did also make sure to press   the blue thumb if you like this video in order to 
make sure that more people can find these videos   because it's really important that we spread the 
knowledge about these subjects i hope to see you   soon next week at the new modeling talks for now 
i wish you a great week thanks for watching bye you


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